An uneasy, uncertain hurricane forecast kicks off September Doyle Rice, USA TODAY September 5, 2025 at 3:09 AM 0 Uncertainty is the word of the day for hurricane forecasters on Sept. 4.
- - An uneasy, uncertain hurricane forecast kicks off September
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY September 5, 2025 at 3:09 AM
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Uncertainty is the word of the day for hurricane forecasters on Sept. 4.
Three separate systems – two in the Pacific and one in the Atlantic – are perplexing forecasters and the computer models they use to predict storms, with no clear answers to where the storms will go and how much of a danger they could be.
The onslaught of storms comes against the backdrop of the typical peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.
Tropical Storm Lorena
The most immediate threat is Tropical Storm (formerly Hurricane) Lorena in the Pacific, which although weakening could bring a flood threat to the Southwest U.S. over the next few days.
Lorena will likely come ashore in Mexico later Sept. 5 as a disintegrated, post-tropical depression, according to Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post. After that, the storm's potential impact in the flood-prone Desert Southwest U.S. remains cloudy:
"Lorena has been a fairly big question mark the last couple days in regards to its path and timing," the National Weather Service in Tucson wrote.
Despite the question marks and uncertainty, a flood watch remains in effect from southeast California through Phoenix and Tucson on Sept. 4, Lanza said. Heavy rain could spread into southern Arizona, southern New Mexico and western Texas beginning this weekend if Lorena tracks inland, AccuWeather said, with as much as 5 inches possible in Arizona.
Why should we care about Lorena? Although Pacific hurricanes seldom have much impact on the U.S., they occasionally bring dangerous flooding to the Southwest United States. Earlier this summer, leftover storminess from the Pacific's Tropical Storm Barry interacted with other weather systems – including remnants from the Atlantic's Hurricane Flossie – to produce the horrific flooding in central Texas that killed 135 people.
You are here: The entire Western Hemisphere as seen by a satellite on the morning of Sept. 4. Hurricane Kiko can be seen at the very far left of the image. Other blobs of cloudiness include Tropical Storm Lorena near Mexico and what's expected to be Gabrielle in the Atlantic.Hurricane Kiko
Kiko, currently a Category 4 "monster hurricane" over the middle of the Pacific Ocean, could affect Hawaii next week. But its track and eventual power remain question marks.
"We're at least 5 to 6 days out from any possible impacts in Hawaii, but this is a storm worth watching for the islands, both from a wind and rain perspective," Lanza said.
The weather service in Honolulu put it this way Sept. 4: "While a large amount of uncertainly exists, there exists the threat for high rainfall that could lead to flooding in association with Kiko….As of this time, due to the high (uncertainty) of Kiko's intensity and track, the messaging for the state is focused on the potential for greater rainfall leading to a flood threat during the Monday through early Thursday time frame."
AccuWeather also noted that "there is a possible scenario that Kiko could bring strong winds and little rain, which could increase the risk of wildfires."
That forecast is cause for concern in Hawaii: The catastrophic wildfires that scorched Maui, Hawaii, in 2023, killing more than 100 people, were likely in part caused by winds from distant Hurricane Dora, which passed by the state some 700 miles to the south.
Proto-Gabrielle in the Atlantic
The most uncertain forecast of the three storms is the blob of storminess in the central Atlantic that's currently ambling its way west across the ocean. Not even a named storm yet, all indications are that the system will become a tropical depression, then Tropical Storm Gabrielle within the next few days.
It's still far too soon speculate on any impacts from the system on the mainland U.S., noted WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in a Substack post Sept. 4:
"Our ability to forecast these systems with any amount of skill and confidence is limited to about 5 to 7 days out, and that's after we have a defined circulation, something we don't have just yet. This is a slow mover, and it's still a week away from landing in the vicinity of the (Caribbean) islands.
"To make it all the way to the mainland U.S. would be probably another two weeks, and of course we have no way of knowing at this stage if that's even a credible possibility."
Lowry said to beware of wild speculations about where the storm will go:
"You'll probably see very long-range computer model simulations (beyond 7 or 10 days) shared on social media in the coming days that suggest a major hurricane strike on the U.S. These are what I like to call fantasyland scenarios – imaginative and often scary depictions inflamed by chaos theory – and unfortunately used irresponsibly to stoke fear and promote likes and engagement."
As with Lorena and Kiko, patience, awareness, and preparedness are the key messages when it comes to what will likely become Gabrielle.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters track 3 systems. Where will they go next?
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