Why September 10 is an infamous day in the Atlantic hurricane season Doyle Rice, USA TODAYSeptember 10, 2025 at 5:03 AM 0 It's here: The typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, based on past weather data.
- - Why September 10 is an infamous day in the Atlantic hurricane season
Doyle Rice, USA TODAYSeptember 10, 2025 at 5:03 AM
0
It's here: The typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, based on past weather data.
The date is considered the peak of the season because it's historically when atmospheric and oceanic conditions are most primed for tropical storm and hurricane development.
But this year, a quiet day is forecast instead, as no tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next seven days, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center released Sept. 9.
This will likely be the first climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in nearly a decade without a named storm in the basin on Sept. 10, AccuWeather reports.
Indeed, the past two weeks have also been unusually calm: In fact, "In the modern recordbooks (since 1966) only the 1968 and 1992 hurricane seasons went the two-week stretch leading into the peak without any active named storms in the Atlantic," said WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in a Substack post Sept. 9 "Now we can add 2025 to that list."
Calling it a "ghost town," Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue said this week that "the Atlantic tropics have gone DORMANT again."
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next seven days.Why is Sept. 10 the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season?
Because it's when several weather and climate factors usually come together to fuel storm development. This includes warm ocean surface temperatures, added atmospheric moisture, and lower wind shear, all of which cause much of the Atlantic basin to be ripe for storm formation and intensification, according to Weather.com.
Why so quiet this year?
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said "dry and dusty air will keep the Atlantic unusually quiet during the climatological peak of the hurricane season on Sept. 10."
Among other factors, hurricanes don't form easily when tropical air is dry and dusty, forecasters said.
The Atlantic may stay quiet for the next 7-10 days, Maue said, or until a healthy enough tropical wave comes off Africa that can survive the otherwise hostile environmental conditions, which include dry air, dust and wind shear.
Beware the Gulf
However, closer to home, with water temperatures in the Gulf running above the historical average, "any cluster of showers and thunderstorms that organize in the Gulf and along the southern Atlantic coast could evolve into a tropical storm, especially from mid- to late September," AccuWeather forecasters warned.
DaSilva said the prospect is "troubling."
"The ocean heat content in the Gulf has soared to a new record high that has not been reported before at any point in the season, not just the climatological peak."
Storm activity in the Atlantic vs. Pacific
As is often the case, while the Atlantic hurricane basin has seen a below-average start to the season, the eastern Pacific basin has been unusually active, according to the hurricane center.
Already, 12 named storms have formed in the basin. Based on climatology, the Pacific doesn't typically get its 12th tropical storm on average until Sept. 21.And as for hurricanes, seven have formed in the Pacific this year. On average, the 7th hurricane doesn't form until Sept. 28.
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAALooking ahead
"The dry air and Saharan dust should start to clear out of the Atlantic main development region by this coming weekend," according to DaSilva. "Atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tropical development are expected to return in the second half of the month."
Forecasters from Colorado State University were also more bullish on the prospects of storms later in September: In its two-week forecast for Sept. 3-16, Colorado State University forecasters predicted that activity will pick up over the next couple of weeks.
"Global model ensembles are pretty aggressive with additional tropical cyclone development in days 8 through 14, with potential formations in the eastern Atlantic as well as in the western Caribbean/southern Gulf," the CSU forecast said.
Were preseason forecasts wrong?
Most preseason forecasts called for an unusually active year, with as many as 19 named storms possible, including as many as 10 hurricanes, according to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. So far, 6 named storms have formed, of which only one was a hurricane (Erin).
Maue said that "my forecast for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average) ... BUT that might be generous."
Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Sept. 8 that "Given how quiet peak season has been and continues to be, it seems pretty likely this year will end up on the lower end of preseason forecasts."
"Outside of the flooding from early tropical storms and fringe impacts from Erin, it's been a low-impact year so far which would be really great if it continues," he said. "But there's a ways to go still."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: September 10 is an infamous day in Atlantic hurricane season
Source: "AOL General News"
Source: Astro Blog
Read More >> Full Article on Source: Astro Blog
#LALifestyle #USCelebrities