Vikings vs. Bears Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers Matt RussellSeptember 8, 2025 at 9:26 PM 0 Week 1 of the 202526 NFL season concludes with an important divisional game, which should be commonplace in the NFC North this season, as every result should lead to a ...
- - Vikings vs. Bears Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers
Matt RussellSeptember 8, 2025 at 9:26 PM
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Week 1 of the 2025-26 NFL season concludes with an important divisional game, which should be commonplace in the NFC North this season, as every result should lead to a massive shift in the various associated futures markets.
While that could be the case in every division, we've already seen one matchup — Lions at Packers — that was lined as a coin-flip game, so this is the second of what might be over a dozen matchups that carry a point spread under a field goal.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
While Thursday's season-opener was a divisional game with betting market intrigue — thanks to a preseason trade that shook up team power ratings and moved the line through the key number of -7 — the Week 1 finale has been more of a slow drip.
The Bears opened -1 back in May, but over the summer, the Vikings became a short favorite. The price bettors pay for the money line matters to the bottom line of their betting ledger, but it's unlikely to matter when it comes to whether you win or lose, as -1 is not a key number.
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The primary reason for the uncertainty as to which team should be favored is pretty clear — if you're of the opinion that the most important relationship in football is between quarterback and play-caller, both the Vikings and Bears have a new half to that equation, and it's anyone's guess as to which pair performs better in Chicago on Monday night.
For Minnesota, the question is: What efficiency level can we expect from head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense, with QB J.J. McCarthy set to start his first NFL game?
For Chicago, the question is: What efficiency-level can we expect from QB Caleb Williams running Ben Johnson's offense, in Johnson's debut as Bears head coach?
McCarthy's been in the meeting rooms with Kevin O'Connell throughout last season, where the head coach guided Sam Darnold (on his fourth team) to a career-best output. Against the Bears, the Vikings' offense had little problem matching up with Chicago's personnel, scoring 30 points in both meetings last year.
Williams had arguably the best game of his rookie season at home against the Vikings, throwing for 340 yards in a shootout, amidst the exodus of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron — fired midseason and replaced with Thomas Brown. Now Williams teams with Johnson, whose Lions offenses averaged 7.0 and 6.0 yards per play in each game against the Vikings, scoring 31 in both 2024 matchups.
Obviously, the Bears personnel is different from the Lions', particularly in comparing the still-green Williams to the veteran Jared Goff. Similarly, Darnold had more experience coming into last season than McCarthy this year. However, if Johnson's positive effect is anything like the negative effect his departure seemed to have on the Lions in Green Bay, the Bears could already see some dividends.
If the game total was pushing towards 50, we'd likely pass. If it were any higher, we'd probably cite an excessive assumption about what these offenses can do, and continue the trend of unders (12-3) that hit the NFL in Week 1. However, if uncertainty about the new combos is keeping this total at a manageable number, especially at a time of year where weather shouldn't be an issue for scoring at Soldier Field.
Bet: Over 43.5 points
Player propsWR Jalen Nailor: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Hopefully, an "over" game begets overs in the prop market, as the first of two bets on the high side features the low bar of a non-household name.
Two notable things happened for Nailor last season:
Early in the season, Jordan Addison missed Weeks 2 and 3 with an injury. In his absence, Nailor played a season-high 93% and 86% of the snaps, catching three passes on four targets in each game, for 54 and 31 yards.
Late in the season, Nailor was organically more involved in critical games, catching 11 of 14 targets in Week 17, 18 and the Vikings' playoff loss to the Rams.
A six-touchdown season for Nailor also shows that O'Connell trusts the fourth-year receiver, and with Addison suspended to start the season, there should be ample opportunity for Nailor to see targets on Monday night.
QB Caleb Williams: Over 218.5 passing yards (-115)
Including their own playoff game, in 18 games last season, Goff failed to throw for more than 218.5 yards just four times. Williams isn't Goff, but this is supposed to be the same offense from Johnson.
Williams averaged 208.3 passing yards per game last season, and that was tamped down by late-season weather (including a 122-yard game in chilly Chicago on Dec. 26), and a messy offensive coordinator situation. A 10-yard adjustment upwards for Week 1 conditions and a new play-caller hired specifically for his offensive mind doesn't feel like enough.
Anytime touchdownVikings: WR Adam Thielen (+300 or better)
McCarthy knows where the tight end is. Just ask his former teammate, and current Chicago Bears TE Colston Loveland, who caught 45 of McCarthy's 240 pass completions for Michigan in 2023. However, while Loveland caught a respectable four touchdowns that championship season, slot receiver Roman Wilson was McCarthy's top target when it came time to score.
Knowing they would need some depth at receiver, the Vikings brought in a familiar piece, trading for Adam Thielen. With Addison out, even if Nailor gets more snaps, Thielen might be a prime trust-worthy target in the red zone (a la Keenan Allen scoring for the Chargers on Friday night), playing out of the slot.
Odds of +300 imply that Thielen has to score more than 25% of the time to be a profitable bet in this game. In Carolina, Thielen scored five times in four of the 10 games he was healthy for last season. Asking the 35-year-old to be healthy/productive for a full season (or even all of Addison's six-game suspension) might be a lot, but he can find the holes in the end zone in a single game on Monday night.
Bears: WR D.J. Moore (+175 or better)
It's an educated guess, but let's project D.J. Moore — once a burgeoning star in Carolina — in the "Amon-Ra St. Brown role" in Johnson's offense with the Bears.
St. Brown scored in 11 of 17 games last season and in 10 of 16 in 2023. A 63.6% touchdown rate would translate to fair odds to -175 odds.
If the difference between -175 and +175 odds is the perceived gap between the 25-year-old St. Brown and 28-year-old Moore, I'd wonder aloud what Moore's production (6+ touchdowns in his last three seasons) would be like had he been with Johnson in Detroit.
Long shot: QB J.J. McCarthy (+525 or better)
Get a young quarterback in the red zone, and the first and last thing they're told is not to force a throw that could result in a turnover. For many, especially a quarterback like McCarthy who showed running ability throughout his college career, that means "tuck it and go!" when things get tight. For a team whose tailbacks had just six rushing touchdowns last season, intentionally putting the ball in the 6-foot-3 McCarthy's hands around the goal line isn't the worst idea either.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Source: "AOL Sports"
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