Top 12 value picks in fantasy football: CJ Stroud tops players who could shine in 2025 Ayrton Ostly, USA TODAYAugust 15, 2025 at 9:02 PM Fantasy football is all about finding advantages with extra value in your picks.
- - Top 12 value picks in fantasy football: CJ Stroud tops players who could shine in 2025
Ayrton Ostly, USA TODAYAugust 15, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Fantasy football is all about finding advantages with extra value in your picks.
Managers across all league formats are looking for players who will outperform their draft positions. A productive first-round pick is the simplest way to contending year-in and year-out. It's a pick made in the later rounds that plays like a top five-to-10 player at their position that can make a championship team.
It's tough to accurately predict which players will outplay their draft position in fantasy football. If it were easy, everyone would win championships. There are some common ways that players outshine expectations on a regular basis, though.
Rookies can provide opportunity for value, depending on their landing spot and the talent or coaching around them. Players can take a step in their second year in the league or with a new coordinator or play-calling head coach. A rough situation a year ago can give way to better conditions thanks to roster changes as well.
We've come up with a dozen players and units who could be great value picks this season. With one exception, all of them are ranked lower than 70th overall in average draft position (ADP) by FantasyPros. These aren't the players you're expecting to get in Rounds 1-5; these are the later-round players who could make a huge difference in value this season.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans -
FantasyPros ADP: QB17, OVR130
An incredible rookie season in 2023 had Stroud up to QB5 by FantasyPros' rankings ahead of the 2024 season. As the offense stalled out, Stroud finished as QB18 in fantasy football, a step down from his QB11 finish in 2023.
There's been a lot of change this offseason in Houston. He'll have a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley who spent the last two years in Los Angeles on the Rams' coaching staff. The offensive line will have multiple new starters, as will the receiving corps with free agent additions and top draft picks alike.
Even as things change around him, Stroud has a top-10 wide receiver in Nico Collins to rely on. If Caley can bring the offense back to a top-half of the league unit, Stroud will be the catalyst for it and should finish much better than QB17.
QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons -
FantasyPros ADP: QB23, OVR153
Penix had some flashes as a rookie down the stretch in Atlanta last season. He will have a full offseason as the starter under his belt with the Falcons and their dynamic offensive weapons headlined by Drake London and Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL last year and should be solid in that area once again. It's down to Penix to make the most of the passing game. Atlanta should have an easy schedule of defenses this season including the Panthers and Saints twice. He's being drafted as a low-end QB2 by ADP but, with the continuity and supporting cast around him, could conceivably make it to high-end QB2 or low-end QB1 by season's end.
RB RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos -
FantasyPros ADP: RB25, OVR52
Harvey is the lone exception to the ADP below 75th, but he's around RB25 in most formats. That makes him a low-end RB2 entering the season despite playing for one of the top offensive minds in Sean Payton.
Denver spent a second-round pick on Harvey. That's no small investment at running back. He should get a large share of carries even with veteran J.K. Dobbins in the building. His receiving skills out of the backfield should increase his value even more in half- and full-PPR formats as Payton likes to involve his backs in the passing game.
RB Miles Sanders, Dallas Cowboys -
FantasyPros ADP: RB64, OVR208
To balance the Harvey pick out we offer the second-lowest overall ADP on this list. Sanders is one of two veterans vying for a starting role in the Dallas backfield. Javonte Williams could be the starter, but his injury history causes some concern.
That could be to Sanders' gain, at least early on. The Cowboys brought in new offensive coordinator Klayton Adams who had a prominent role in one of the top rushing attacks in the league in recent years in Arizona. Rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah might take time to have an impact on late and early downs, respectively. That leaves the door open for Sanders to have a role that far outranks his current draft position.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins -
FantasyPros ADP: WR31, OVR73
Tyreek Hill is two years removed from leading the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns and is entering his age-31 season. In 2024, Hill failed to reach 1,000 yards as a starter for the first time without missing any games for injury.
That's all to say the torch could be passed to Waddle more than before in 2025. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing time, Waddle also struggled and failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He should bounce back in 2025 and could get a bigger target share with tight end Jonnu Smith (111 targets in 2024, second to Hill) no longer on the team.
WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots -
FantasyPros ADP: WR42, OVR91
Diggs' 2024 season ended early with a significant knee injury but he seems to be healthy as the preseason approaches. The Athletic's Chad Graff observed in camp that "if he can stay healthy, another 1,000-yard season isn't just in play but might be likely."
Diggs is in the decline of his career considering that injury and his age (he'll turn 32 years old this season). Still, considering the dearth of proven weapons in New England and the current receiver hierarchy, Diggs should be the No. 1 target in the passing game. That's enough opportunity to see him outplay this draft spot.
WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers -
FantasyPros ADP: WR48, OVR100
Outside of tight end George Kittle, target distribution in the passing game is unclear in San Francisco. Brandon Aiyuk won't be ready by Week 1 and that leaves Pearsall and Jauan Jennings to pick up the slack among the pass-catchers.
Pearsall's come back from an early hamstring tweak to be one of the stars in training camp for the 49ers. He's getting a lot of attention in the passing game from quarterback Brock Purdy, especially as Jennings deals with a calf injury. Pearsall could absolutely out-perform his draft position at least until Aiyuk returns midseason.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -
FantasyPros ADP: WR52, OVR117
Egbuka was one of the top wide receiver prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft. He's one of the most pro-ready of the group with the skillset to contribute from the slot as a rookie. He may have a great opportunity to do so in year one.
Tampa Bay's touted one of the better wide receiver duos in the league for years with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The former is entering his age-32 season in the NFL and the latter is recovering from a devastating ankle injury that required a second surgery this offseason. Godwin's absence has given Egbuka more opportunity to shine in training camp and he has. His ceiling as capped at likely a high-end WR3 at best but he could absolutely outplay his current ADP.
TE Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers -
FantasyPros ADP: TE11, OVR108
Smith had a career-high 111 targets in Miami with inconsistent quarterback play due to Tua Tagovailoa missing multiple games. There's a chance he could eclipse that in Pittsburgh as he's been reunited with his former coach Arthur Smith, now the Steelers' offensive coordinator.
Trade acquisition DK Metcalf is the Steelers' top weapon on offense but we've seen him in Seattle allow for more than one fantasy-relevant pass-catcher around him. Smith's rapport with Arthur Smith could be key at a top-heavy position. There's a cliff after the top five or six players at the position when it comes to expectations entering 2025.
TE Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders -
FantasyPros ADP: TE17, OVR158
Ertz was one of many veterans in Washington to benefit from Jayden Daniels' arrival in 2024. The three-time Pro Bowl tight end had 654 yards and seven touchdowns, his best year since 2021.
He enters 2025 with good value due to the contract standoff between Washington and top wide receiver Terry McLaurin. That could drag well into the preseason and keep McLaurin from getting valuable reps and cause him to start slow to the year. That could give Ertz a bigger portion of the targets and a chance to sustain that through the season.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST -
FantasyPros ADP: D/ST10, OVR200
The 49ers were the third-best defense in fantasy football in 2022. In the two seasons since, they dropped to 10th in 2023 then 25th in 2024, their lowest ranking since 2018. That looked appropriate given what happened on the field as well.
San Francisco invested heavily into the draft to turn the tide. Rookie defensive linemen Mykel Williams, Alfred Collins and CJ West should all see significant playing time this season in a turnaround year for the franchise. But what really makes them such a value play is their schedule. San Francisco faces the easiest schedule by 2024 winning percentage in the league in 2025. They'll play the NFC South and AFC South teams as well as the Browns, Bears and Giants. That's a cushy schedule featuring plenty of first-time play-calling head coaches or rookie quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST -
FantasyPros ADP: D/ST15, OVR220
Tampa Bay also has one of the easier schedules when it comes to opposing offenses thanks to playing the Panthers and Saints twice each. The Buccaneers also take on the AFC East this year which includes the Patriots and Jets.
The Buccaneers added depth at cornerback in the draft and added in free agency at edge rusher with Haason Reddick. Even if the talent isn't top-tier, the coaching is with Todd Bowles calling plays on that side of the ball.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football value picks: CJ Stroud leads top 12 players
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