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- Hurricane center watching potential storm near Florida</p>
<p>Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAYJuly 2, 2025 at 2:30 AM</p>
<p>A front expected to move over Florida and slow or stall has drawn the attention of the National Hurricane Center, which warns a potential tropical system could develop somewhere along its fringes.</p>
<p>Either way, moisture ahead of the front and a cluster of showers and thunderstorms hanging out over the Gulf waters offshore are expected to make it a rainy week, putting a damper on Independence Day festivities in the Sunshine State.</p>
<p>For now, the hurricane center sees a 30% chance of the low pressure area developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days. But that could change.</p>
<p>The next storm name up in the Atlantic hurricane season rotation is Chantal.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the hurricane center is issuing forecasts on Hurricane Flossie, expected to become a major hurricane as it moves west northwestward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The hurricane center's forecast track has shifted the storm's forward path slightly west of the scenic tourist destination and cruise port of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.</p>
<p>The National Hurricane Center will be keeping an eye on the fringes of a front stalling or slowing over Florida for a potential low pressure area to form.</p>
<p>Water temperatures off Florida's northwest Gulf coast are warmer than normal, which can help provide the heat energy that fuels storm development. Waters in the Atlantic Ocean along Florida's northeast coast, however, appear cooler than normal on sea surface temperature maps from the hurricane center's parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.</p>
<p>"Given the warmth of the waters in the region and the tendency for old frontal zones to pinch off tropical systems this time of year, it wouldn't be surprising if development odds come up with this one in the days ahead," said Michael Lowry, a NOAA veteran and hurricane specialist at WPLG 10 in Miami, in a daily update on his Substack.</p>
<p>Either way, the stalled front on its own is expected to bring stormy weather for Independence Day celebrations on July 4, and anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain across much of the state, according to the National Weather Service.</p>
<p>A system of clouds and storms seen on NOAA satellite moving near Florida could stall, and allow the potential development of a tropical depression or storm, the National Hurricane Center says, but for now the chances are low through July 7.</p>
<p>Along the west coast south of the state capital in Tallahassee, rain chances are a little higher, with the potential for up to 6 inches of rain, with a 1 in 10 chance of even higher rain. Commonly referred to as Florida's "Nature Coast," the region has a 15%-39% chance of excessive rainfall on July 3, the weather service said. Some of the heaviest rain – 4 to 6 inches – is expected to fall over Taylor County, home of three hurricane landfalls between 2023 and 2024.</p>
<p>Local pockets of heavy rainfall that bring flooding to urban and low lying areas are a threat in the state, depending on where the most intense thunderstorms occur. Some isolated locations in Florida already have received 4-6 inches of rain since June 28.</p>
<p>Rainfall chances in the National Weather Service Tallahassee region.</p>
<p>Rainfall chances in the National Weather Service Tampa Bay region.Flossie spins in Eastern Pacific</p>
<p>Flossie on July 1 had sustained winds of 100 mph about 460 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas. It could briefly reach winds of up to 115 mph as it moves away from Mexico and then dissipates. Tropical storm watches and warnings – meaning tropical storm conditions are possible or expected – are in effect for portions of the Mexican coast.</p>
<p>Hurricane Flossie gains that classic hurricane look as it swirls in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico.</p>
<p>The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Hurricane Flossie on July 1, 2025.</p>
<p>Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.</p>
<p>This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane center watching disturbance near Florida</p>
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